Silicon Metal Prices Stabilize Temporarily, Expectations for Production Cuts at Some Polysilicon Bases [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM August 18 News:

Silicon Metal

Prices

Last week, spot silicon metal prices fluctuated rangebound. SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was in the range of 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was in the range of 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the most-traded SI2511 contract fluctuated considerably, with the spot-futures price spread remaining largely unchanged. Downstream end-users showed a strong sentiment to drive down prices when buying the dip.

Production

On the supply side, a small amount of new production resumptions released additional output, leading to a WoW increase in weekly silicon metal production. Recently, supply-side production has maintained a slight increasing trend.

Inventory

Social Inventory: As of August 14, SMM's statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 545,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW. This includes 117,000 mt in general warehouses, down 1,000 mt from last week, and 428,000 mt in delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), down 1,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and other regions)

Polysilicon

Prices

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 45-49 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 45.9 yuan/kg. Granular polysilicon was quoted at 43-46 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained stable over the weekend, but the market currently faces limited transactions, and downstream price transmission is under significant pressure.

Production

In August, polysilicon production will significantly increase, up about 25% MoM, with the main increases concentrated in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Qinghai. In September, there are rumors of some major bases reducing load or halting production, which may lead to a decrease in polysilicon production.

Inventory

Currently, polysilicon inventory has risen somewhat as previous purchases have concluded, and companies may face greater pressure going forward.

Modules

Prices

Recently, module prices have been mixed. Companies that previously competed for orders at low prices have started to raise their quotes. The high point for distributed modules is approaching 0.72 yuan/W, and there has been a slight reduction in resistance to higher prices from the end-user side. This week, domestic meetings are likely to finalize the future trend of module prices, which are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the coming week. Current prices for distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.674 yuan/W, 0.695 yuan/W, and 0.676 yuan/W, respectively. For centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules, the prices are 0.659 yuan/W and 0.674 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

In the past week, domestic module manufacturers' production schedules have been relatively stable, with overall production showing a slight upward trend compared to early August.

Inventory

Weekly inventory levels are still expected to rise slightly, with a slight supply surplus.

High-purity quartz sand

prices

Currently, the price of inner layer sand in China is 59,000-64,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand is 27,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand is 17,000-22,000 yuan/mt. Recently, the prices of domestically produced high-purity quartz sand have remained stable. In terms of trading volume, after crucible enterprises made just-in-time procurement, the recent market trading volume has decreased somewhat, putting a little pressure on purchases by crucible enterprises, but prices remain temporarily stable for now.

Production

Recently, domestic sand enterprises have seen both increases and decreases in operations, and it is expected that the production of quartz sand in August will be up slightly MoM from July.

Inventory

Sand enterprise inventories have basically remained stable, with domestic supply and demand being roughly balanced.

PV glass

prices

3.2mm single-layer coating: The price of 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 17.5-18.5 yuan/m², with prices remaining stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The price of 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 18.5-19.5 yuan/m², with prices remaining stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The price of 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 11-11.5 yuan/m². Last week, some second-tier domestic companies quoted around 11.5 yuan/m² for new inquiries. Glass companies have sufficient orders on hand, and there is an expectation for further price increases.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The price of 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 12-12.5 yuan/m², with prices rising.

Production

In the past week, some domestic glass companies have resumed their blocked kilns, and the market supply has started to increase after a decline.

Inventory

Glass inventory continues to decrease, with leading glass companies' days of inventories dropping to about 25 days, indicating a rapid destocking pace.